By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic 16h ago
abc.net.au/news/why-new-zealand-plans-to-nearly-double-its-defence-spending/105151326
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New Zealand is not exactly known as a major military power.
For decades the country has relied on its geographical isolation and the reassuring presence of the Australian Defence Force on its western flank, rather than building up its own forces.
But as the world becomes more perilous and uncertain, all that is changing rapidly.
Yesterday afternoon NZ Prime Minister Christopher Luxon unveiled perhaps the most significant boost to NZ’s defence spending in years — promising to almost double defence spending over the next eight years.
That will mean another $9 billion in new spending over the next four years, with more money being ploughed into developing a “modern, combat-capable” New Zealand Defence Force.
So what does New Zealand want to achieve with its new defence capability plan? What is driving this strategic shift and what are the implications for Australia and the broader Pacific region?
Why is New Zealand doing this?
Largely because New Zealand’s government believes the world has become a much more dangerous place.
Much of the strategic anxiety centres around China, which has been building up a huge navy and a formidable military arsenal.
Defence Minister Judith Collins opened her press conference on the new plan by specifically pointing to China’s intercontinental ballistic missile launch in the Pacific last year, as well as the Chinese naval taskforce which conducted live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea in February.NZ says China held second live-fire drill
Photo shows A grey navy ship sailing in the ocean
Sailors on the New Zealand Navy frigate Te Kaha observe live rounds being fired from a Chinese vessel’s main gun, a day after a similar exercise was conducted between Australia and New Zealand with little notice.
“Distance certainly is no longer any protection for New Zealand, not when we have an intercontinental ballistic missile launched in the South Pacific, not when ships with enormous strike power come into our backyard,” she said.
“This reality requires us not only to work with others who share our values and interests to reduce the possibility of conflict but also to prepare ourselves should the worst happen.”
The broader strategic chaos around the globe is also feeding into anxiety in Wellington.
New Zealand isn’t a treaty ally of the United States but much like Australia, it’s also worried about the Trump administration withdrawing from the Asia-Pacific.
All this at a time when New Zealand’s military strength has been steadily atrophying, with defence job cuts, three naval vessels idling because there are insufficient sailors to crew them, and the catastrophic sinking of the survey vessel HMNZS Manawanui off Samoa last year.
Last month Judith Collins said she wanted to take the NZDF “out of intensive care” and into the “ward”.
She struck a slightly more optimistic note yesterday, saying the new investments would get NZDF “out of the intensive care unit and not just growing, but growing where we need it to go”.
How much more are they spending?
New Zealand will jack up its defence spending from just over 1 per cent to about 2 per cent of GDP over the next eight years.
That means about $9 billion in new funding over the next four years, with more beyond that: the Prime Minister Christopher Luxon calls the current commitments a “floor not a ceiling”.
It’s not an earth-shattering sum.
For a point of comparison, Australia (which has a much larger economy than New Zealand) is already moving defence spending up beyond 2 per cent and will spend about $62 billion next financial year.
But for New Zealand — with an economy smaller than Queensland’s — it’s a significant announcement.
It’s a particularly heavy lift right now because New Zealand’s economy has been struggling, and new cash is hard to come by.
It will also send an important signal to the country (and the region) that New Zealand is serious about investing more heavily in its own defence.
That is, of course, if the promises made by the prime minister and the defence minister are delivered.
Both NZ’s military top brass and others will be scrutinising the approaching budget to make sure the dollars which have been promised appear on the bottom line.
How will the money be spent?
There’s a long list of things that New Zealand wants to do (and buy) to make its defence more lethal and more capable.
Under the plan, two of the military’s ageing transport planes will be replaced, and a new fleet of maritime helicopters will be purchased to operate on its naval vessels.
More money will be ploughed into upgrading NZ’s two frigates, although there will be no replacement vessel for the HMNZ Manawanui.
New Zealand will also develop more sophisticated “strike capabilities” by deploying new missile systems which can target enemy forces — although it’s not yet clear if it will arm its frigates and reconnaissance planes with them, or develop new land based systems instead.
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There’s also a healthy investment in bolstering recruitment, in an effort to build up NZDF numbers once again.
On top of this, the military will look at buying drones (or “uncrewed aerial systems”) to deliver more bang for their buck.
Defence Minister Judith Collins said the plan would deliver “enhanced lethality” and a “deterrent effect” for the NZDF.
And the Luxon government hopes it will be able to develop a defence force which is able to pose more of a threat to any potential aggressors — as well as being able to do more to help in the face of natural disasters and other calamities.
What does it mean for the region?
New Zealand’s announcement is not going to send massive reverberations through the region and it’s hardly going to drastically alter the balance of power.
On a global scale, the new money is loose change.
New Zealand’s military forces will remain relatively small when compared to larger players like Australia, let alone behemoths like the US or China.
But that doesn’t mean the announcements won’t have an impact.
Australia has long complained about New Zealand refusing to pull its weight on defence spending, and Canberra will be happy to see this money flowing.
Judith Collins has talked about the NZDF being a “force multiplier” for Australia, which remains its only military ally.
The new plan also emphasises building “interoperability” (the capacity of a defence force to seamlessly operate with that of another country) with the larger Australian military.
These phrases can stir a bit of opposition in New Zealand, which has a long and proud tradition of slightly ornery independence on defence and foreign policy.
But as the region faces an ever darker strategic outlook, both Australia and New Zealand are likely to instinctively pull closer together and share military resources.What Trump presidency means for Australia’s neighbours
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And these investments means that if Australia needs to call on New Zealand for help — whether for a natural disaster, to monitor a Chinese naval vessel in the region or to deal with a real military threat — then Wellington will have more to offer.
For the Pacific, the picture might be slightly more complex.
The Luxon government insists Pacific nations are delighted with the plan, and no doubt they’ll be glad to see NZDF building up capabilities which could help them deal with some of the escalating climate crises looming in the near future.
But the Pacific is also deeply worried about the way all powers, great and small, currently seem intent on ploughing more and more money into their increasingly lethal militaries.
New Zealand is a long way from the worst offender here, but yesterday’s announcement is another dashboard indicator blinking red — and another sign that the region is facing its most perilous times in recent memory.
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